A climate change simulation starting from 1935

Due to restrictions in the available computing resources and a lack of suitable observational data, transient climate change experiments with global coupled ocean-atmosphere models have been started from an initial state at equilibrium with the present day forcing. The historical development of greenhouse gas forcing from the onset of industrialization until the present has therefore been neglected. Studies with simplified models have shown that this "cold start" error leads to a serious underestimation of the anthropogenic global warming. In the present study, a 150-year integration has been carried out with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model starting from the greenhouse gas concentration observed in 1935, i.e., at an early time of industrialization. The model was forced with observed greenhouse gas concentrations up to 1985, and with the equivalent C02 concentrations stipulated in Scenario A ("Business as Usual") of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from 1985 to 2085. The early starting date alleviates some of the cold start problems. The global mean near surface temperature change in 2085 is about 0.3 K (ca. 10) higher in the early industrialization experiment than in an integration with the same model and identical Scenario A greenhouse gas forcing, but with a start date in 1985. Comparisons between the experiments with early and late start dates show considerable differences in the amplitude of the regional climate change patterns, particularly for sea level. The early industrialization experiment can be used to obtain a first estimate of the detection time for a greenhouse-gas-induced near-surface temperature signal. Detection time estimates are obtained using globally and zonally averaged data from the experiment and a long control run, as well as principal component time series describing the evolution of the dominant signal and noise modes. The latter approach yields the earliest detection time (in the decade 1990-2000) for the time-evolving near-surface temperature signal. For global-mean temperatures or for temperatures averaged between 45°N and 45°S, the signal detection times are in the decades 2015-2025 and 2005-2015, respectively. The reduction of the "cold start" error in the early industrialization experiment makes it possible to separate the near-surface temperature signal from the noise about one decade earlier than in the experiment starting in 1985. We stress that these detection times are only valid in the context of the coupled model's internally-generated natural variability, which possibly underestimates low frequency fluctuations and does not incorporate the variance associated with changes in external forcing factors, such as anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, solar variability or volcanic dust. © 1995 Springer-Verlag

Suizid und Internet

The number of people aged 14 and older that use the Internet in Germany has doubled to 35.7 millions (55.3%) since the year 2000. The Internet also more and more expands into the domain of psychiatry and psychotherapy, and is used by psychiatric patients for information, communication and therapeutic purposes. Nevertheless, the infinite possibilities of the World Wide Web are linked with several advantages and disadvantages. Easily accessible information, numerous opportunities for exchange among like-minded people and therapeutic support from online therapies are juxtaposed with such risks as frequently lacking quality and transparency of the available information, possible enhancement of social withdrawal and certain Websites concerning suicide. If the mentioned risks of the Internet rather provoke new problems and trigger suicidality or if the chance of an easily accessible online discussion rather results in mental relief cannot be answered generally

Monte Carlo climate change forecasts with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model

Four time-dependent greenhouse warming experiments were performed with the same global coupled atmosphere-ocean model, but with each simulation using initial conditions from different ''snapshots'' of the control run climate. The radiative forcing - the increase in equivalent CO2 concentrations from 19852035 specified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenario A - was identical in all four 50-year integrations. This approach to climate change experiments is called the Monte Carlo technique and is analogous to a similar experimental set-up used in the field of extended range weather forecasting. Despite the limitation of a very small sample size, this approach enables the estimation of both a mean response and the ''between-experiment'' variability, information which is not available from a single integration. The use of multiple realizations provides insights into the stability of the response, both spatially, seasonally and in terms of different climate variables. The results indicate that the time evolution of the global mean warming signal is strongly dependent on the initial state of the climate system. While the individual members of the ensemble show considerable variation in the pattern and amplitude of near-surface temperature change after 50 years, the ensemble mean climate change pattern closely resembles that obtained in a 100-year integration performed with the same model. In global mean terms, the climate change signals for near surface temperature, the hydrological. cycle and sea level significantly exceed the variability among the members of the ensemble. Due to the high internal variability of the modelled climate system, the estimated detection time of the global mean temperature change signal is uncertain by at least one decade. While the ensemble mean surface temperature and sea level fields show regionally significant responses to greenhouse-gas forcing, it is not possible to identify a significant response in the precipitation and soil moisture fields, variables which are spatially noisy and characterized by large variability between the individual integrations

How to Decrease Suicide Rates in Both Genders? An Effectiveness Study of a Community-Based Intervention (EAAD)

BACKGROUND: The suicide rate in Hungary is high in international comparison. The two-year community-based four-level intervention programme of the European Alliance Against Depression (EAAD) is designed to improve the care of depression and to prevent suicidal behaviour. Our aim was to evaluate the effectiveness of a regional community-based four-level suicide prevention programme on suicide rates. METHOD: The EAAD programme was implemented in Szolnok (population 76,311), a town in a region of Hungary with an exceptionally high suicide rate. Effectiveness was assessed by comparing changes in suicide rates in the intervention region after the intervention started with changes in national suicide rates and those in a control region (Szeged) in the corresponding period. RESULTS: For the duration of the programme and the follow-up year, suicide rates in Szolnok were significantly lower than the average of the previous three years (p = .0076). The suicide rate thus went down from 30.1 per 100,000 in 2004 to 13.2 in 2005 (-56.1 %), 14.6 in 2006 (-51.4 %) and 12.0 in 2007 (-60.1 %). This decrease of annual suicide rates in Szolnok after the onset of the intervention was significantly stronger than that observed in the whole country (p = .017) and in the control region (p = .0015). Men had the same decrease in suicide rates as women. As secondary outcome, an increase of emergency calls to the hotline service (200%) and outpatient visits at the local psychiatry clinic (76%) was found. CONCLUSIONS: These results seem to provide further support for the effectiveness of the EAAD concept. Whilst the majority of suicide prevention programs mainly affect female suicidal behaviour, this programme seems to be beneficial for both sexes. The sustainability and the role of the mediating factors (social service and health care utilization, community attitudes about suicide) should be key points in future research

The effects of blinding on the outcomes of psychotherapy and pharmacotherapy for adult depression: A meta-analysis.

Background: Randomized trials with antidepressants are often run under double blind placebo-controlled conditions, whereas those with psychotherapies are mostly unblinded. This can introduce bias in favor of psychotherapy when the treatments are directly compared. In this meta-analysis, we examine this potential source of bias

Personality and Augmenting/Reducing (A/R) in auditory event-related potentials (ERPs) during emotional visual stimulation

An auditory augmenting/reducing ERP paradigm recorded for 5 intensity tones with emotional visual stimulation was used, for the first time, to test predictions derived from the revised Reinforcement Sensitivity Theory (rRST) of personality with respect to two major factors: behavioral inhibition system (BIS), fight/flight/freeze system (FFFS). Higher BIS and FFFS scores were negatively correlated with N1/P2 slopes at central sites (C3, Cz, C4). Conditional process analysis revealed that the BIS was a mediator of the association between the N1/P2 slope and the FFFS scores. An analysis of covariance showed that lower BIS scorers exhibited larger N1/P2 amplitudes across all tone intensities while watching negative, positive and neutral pictures. Additionally, lower FFFS scorers compared to higher FFFS scorers disclosed larger N1/P2 amplitudes to the highest tone intensities and these differences were even more pronounced while watching positive emotional pictures. Findings were explained assuming the operation of two different, but related processes: transmarginal inhibition for the BIS; the attention/emotional gating mechanism regulating cortical sensory input for the FFFS trait. These findings appear consistent with predictions derived from the rRST, which traced fear and anxiety to separate but interacting neurobehavioural systems

Developing social capital in implementing a complex intervention: a process evaluation of the early implementation of a suicide prevention intervention in four European countries

<p>Background: Variation in the implementation of complex multilevel interventions can impact on their delivery and outcomes. Few suicide prevention interventions, especially multilevel interventions, have included evaluation of both the process of implementation as well as outcomes. Such evaluation is essential for the replication of interventions, for interpreting and understanding outcomes, and for improving implementation science. This paper reports on a process evaluation of the early implementation stage of an optimised suicide prevention programme (OSPI-Europe) implemented in four European countries.</p> <p>Methods: The process analysis was conducted within the framework of a realist evaluation methodology, and involved case studies of the process of implementation in four European countries. Datasets include: repeated questionnaires to track progress of implementation including delivery of individual activities and their intensity; serial interviews and focus groups with stakeholder groups; and detailed observations at OSPI implementation team meetings.</p> <p>Results: Analysis of local contexts in each of the four countries revealed that the advisory group was a key mechanism that had a substantial impact on the ease of implementation of OSPI interventions, particularly on their ability to recruit to training interventions. However, simply recruiting representatives of key organisations into an advisory group is not sufficient to achieve impact on the delivery of interventions. In order to maximise the potential of high level ‘gatekeepers’, it is necessary to first transform them into OSPI stakeholders. Motivations for OSPI participation as a stakeholder included: personal affinity with the shared goals and target groups within OSPI; the complementary and participatory nature of OSPI that adds value to pre-existing suicide prevention initiatives; and reciprocal reward for participants through access to the extended network capacity that organisations could accrue for themselves and their organisations from participation in OSPI.</p> <p>Conclusions: Exploring the role of advisory groups and the meaning of participation for these participants revealed some key areas for best practice in implementation: careful planning of the composition of the advisory group to access target groups; the importance of establishing common goals; the importance of acknowledging and complementing existing experience and activity; and facilitating an equivalence of benefit from network participation.</p&gt